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World Economic Outlook, October 2015 - IMF
Oct 1, 2015 ... Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current. Account Balance ..... the impact of sharply lower oil prices, and contagion effects could ... volatility, downside risks to the outlook have risen, par- ticularly for ...
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Grain price and volatility transmission from international to domestic
Understanding the sources of domestic food price volatility in developing countries ... Keywords: Volatility transmission, price transmission, grain commodity prices, ...... four in Asia (rice in Philippines (well milled) and Thailand ( 25% broken) and .... Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn market.
[ AAEA Price and volatility transmission Jun 1 2015.pdf - Read/Download File

Gold Sachs 2016 Outlook - Full Report - Philanthropy Ohio
a source of greater volatility in 2016 due to its ... Similarly, a decline in crude oil prices provided .... Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the ...... (1992), Hong Kong (1997), Indonesia (1997), Malaysia (1997), Philippines (1997), ...
[ Goldman Sachs 2016 Outlook - Full Report.pdf - Read/Download File

Prepared Remarks - Peterson Institute for International Economics
May 24, 2016 ... Philippines, for example, had about 20 nearly consecutive IMF lending programs. ... growth, powered by rising oil and commodity prices, and China's ... linkages have brought market volatility, powerful spillovers, and dislocations. Politics ... Those legacies generate permanent negative effects, a hysteresis.
[ lipton20160524niarchos.pdf - Read/Download File

When, why, and what's next for low inflation? - Bank of England
Jun 17, 2015 ... including oil prices, the exchange rate, and inflation in other countries. .... solid as inflation rates remained around countries' targets, and the volatility in ...... There appears to be more hysteresis in core inflation .... philippines.
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Macroeconomic Review April 2016 Vol XV Issue 1 - Monetary
Apr 1, 2016 ... global oil prices in late 2015 and the sharp decline in COE premiums at the beginning of this year. This forecast for ..... confidence caused by elevated financial volatility earlier this year .... overhang, sluggish investment and hysteresis effects associated ..... the Philippines will be bolstered by additional fiscal.
[ MR_April2016.pdf - Read/Download File

Download the Report - Oliver Wyman
on the Philippines, even as global leaders debated climate change in .... oil-price shocks, chronic unemployment and failure of physical ..... Extreme volatility in.
[ Global_Risks_2014_FINAL.pdf - Read/Download File

Cambodia: Diversifying Beyond Garments and Tourism - Asian
Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2014. ..... latter exposing the country to international energy price volatility. ..... Oil and natural gas ... is, path dependence or what economists call hysteresis), the heavy inflow of dollars ...
[ cambodia-diversifying-country-diagnostic-study.pdf - Read/Download File

Oil market structure, network effects and the choice - European
store of value and price transparency in the oil market. .... rate volatility. ...... Oomes N. Network externalities and dollarization hysteresis: the case of Russia.
[ ecbocp77.pdf - Read/Download File

national cycles in wages and prices gave rise to severe macroeconomic instability. The Swan ... est rates converge, but wage and price inflation does not. ...... 3 2009 A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings ... 02 2011 Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock ... Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence.
[ spahn_lang.pdf - Read/Download File

Download report - Standard Chartered Bank
Oct 7, 2015 ... by China's slowdown, low oil prices and ongoing spare capacity. On a five-year view ..... Known as 'hysteresis'. Limited. Source: ... the drop in commodity prices and market volatility. There is talk of ..... Philippines. 18.2. 8.2. 8.7.
[ Special-report-Inflation-down-but-not-out.pdf - Read/Download File

Download 313.43 KB - Asian Development Bank
Development Bank, Manila, Philippines: Tel. ... Consumer price inflation has fallen sharply from an average of 56% over 1990–1998 to an average 3.5% over ... The recent discovery of oil and gas could be a significant boon for the ..... stronger hysteresis effect in Cambodia, compared to either Viet Nam or the Lao People's.
[ wp19-cambodias-persistent-dollarization.pdf - Read/Download File

Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates
Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, South Africa, Turkey and Venezuela. Source: .... series based on consumer prices because the volatility of the latter before 1870 ... dummy for World War II and dummies for the 1973 and 1979 oil price shocks. ..... investment in physical and human capital through hysteresis effects, then.
[ Geneva17_28sept.pdf - Read/Download File

North South Terms of Trade - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
example of this is the explosion of oil prices in the early 1970s. ... The terms of trade (ratio of export to import prices) is the relative price that determines the rate  ...
[ wp97-5-pdf.pdf - Read/Download File

One World, One Currency - American University
Argentina, and Uribe (1997) for an illuminating model of hysteresis in .... 15 An important element of this volatility is that, whereas money prices of goods ... exports of Chile, Colombia, Peru, the Philippines, Thailand and Turkey. .... Texas should go off the U.S. dollar to cope with the 1980s decline in world oil prices: although.
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Download - LSE Research Online
Dec 31, 2007 ... economic characteristics of the GCC as an region dominated by oil and natural gas .... beginning of period t, Pt the price level and Yt real GDP in period t, I define ..... I therefore rule out both a long-run non-vertical Phillips curve and hysteresis ... exchange market can be a source of shocks, excess volatility, ...
[ Economic,_political_and_institutional_prerequisites_(LSERO).pdf - Read/Download File

BIS 84th Annual Report - June 2014 - Bank for International
Jun 29, 2014 ... Low funding costs and volatility encouraged the search for yield . ..... III.6 The price and wage Phillips curves have become flatter in advanced ..... financial system struggles to oil the economic engine, damaging .... economists call “ hysteresis” – the impact on productive potential of the persistence.
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ROME - Index of
exchange rate changes or changes of other (relative) prices, are neither .... Finally, the Fund analysis may “help oil the wheels of economic ... volatility not caused by fundamentals may be harmful for growth and ...... hysteresis in German exports – Sectoral evidence for some OECD .... The Euro Area is not the Philippines.
[ rome-wp-2014-01.pdf - Read/Download File

The Asynchronous Monetary Stances of Advanced Economies and
level determined how vulnerable asset prices of EMEs where to changes in US interest rates. ... Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Poland, Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and ... IMF (2014a) reported that the announcement of tapering triggered volatility .... the long-term unemployment rate through hysteresis.
[ Tlhalefang-Moeletsi.pdf - Read/Download File

Economic, Political, and Institutional Prerequisites for Monetary
Abstract. The paper reviews the arguments for and against monetary union among the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council—the United Arab Emirates, ...
[ l77u6782j5753730.pdf - Read/Download File

Capital flight and foreign direct investment in Africa - PERI
May 2, 2016 ... stock–capital flight link, especially in the case of oil. ... Moreover, commodity dependence exposes African economies to growth volatility and ... literature (or hysteresis; see Ndikumana and Boyce (2003) and ..... Higher commodity prices provide incentives for increased foreign investment in the resource.
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level of inflation volatility diminish the impact of monetary shocks. ..... material change in the market interest rate, in addition to producing a hysteresis that may .... economy cyclic position, the price of oil) and of monetary policy shocks (the residuals ... Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal,.
[ chile_mies_tapia.pdf - Read/Download File

SAVING TRANSITIONS* Dani Rodrik Harvard - World Bank
include too many instances of simple volatility. If the horizon is ... eventually experience a reduction in saving rates— Egypt, Philippines, Portugal, Suriname, and ... If there is some hysteresis in saving behavior, arising from habit formation or irreversible .... benefited from the boom in the oil-producing states during the 1970s.
[ rodpaper.pdf - Read/Download File

Financial Flows and Exchange Rates - International Policy Centre
The consequences of large and volatile capital flows on the exchange rates of developing ..... Moreover, external shocks to the exchange rate can lead to trade hysteresis, i.e. changes .... Philippines, 0% ..... economies and higher non-oil commodities prices, but no significant impact from low interest rates in advanced.
[ IPCWorkingPaper97.pdf - Read/Download File

The Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Prices and Quantities in
change rate changes on U.S. import and export prices and then examines the effects of .... 'Exports were used as a proxy for economic activity for Mexico, the Philippines, and ... 'The issue of the effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows is not .... for crude materials has proven to be difficult even before the first oil crisis,.
[ wp90-01.pdf - Read/Download File

Download (959kB) - Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Oct 1, 2013 ... This paper analyzes the influence of international resource price ... 1989), to economic volatility and policy pro-cyclicality (Budina et al, .... crude oil production in many former colonial countries was initiated by the ..... This can be interpreted as the hysteresis of capital flight, but this .... Philippine Case Study.
[ MPRA_paper_50273.pdf - Read/Download File

Macroeconomic Policies and Growth - Reserve Bank of Australia
exchange rates and higher oil prices with lower output and productivity growth. .... find inflation to be the main source of volatility in the marginal return to ... growth could contain important elements of hysteresis, due to the existence of ..... Philippines) a number of countries have used exchange rate policies to promote export.
[ andersen-gruen.pdf - Read/Download File

A Research Project on Ranges of Financial Prices
their competitors in the same market so as to minimize price volatility and maximize profits. They call ... to invoice homogeneous commodities such as oil.3.
[ wp-no-08_2014-final-.pdf - Read/Download File

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