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An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art
Dec 1, 2013 ... The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional- mean .... forecast systems, forecast evaluation is typically per- formed in .... 4 For point forecasts, forecasting anomalies allows an immediate apparent ... namic climatology based on ensemble random analog .... To test whether.
[ 110 Suckling.pdf - Read/Download File

Evaluating Observing Requirements for ENSO Prediction
Aug 15, 2004 ... networks for ENSO prediction using observing system simulation experiments ... Section 4 tests modifying ... ENSO anomaly model, the T80 model described and studied in .... At a lead time of 6 months, the analog hindcasts.
[ mb_evaluating.pdf - Read/Download File

Application of the Analogue-Based Correction of Errors Method in
Mar 16, 2014 ... tion and then establish an analogue-dynamical ENSO prediction system based on an operational climate predic- tion model. The authors .... the predicted and observed Nifio3.4 SST anomaly indices. Figure 2 compares the .... hindcast data with this model, in order to test whether the system could be ...
[ j.issn.1674-2834.13.0080 - Read/Download File

Did the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast Model Outperform Statistical
starting in 1987, so that 15 yr of hindcasts and forecasts are now available for verification. Seasonal ... gate the effect of (prescribed) SST anomalies to make seasonal ... was the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) cy15r8. This .... 2.5% level ( one-sided t test). Next, the ... (2000) and Constructed Analog (CA) model by van den.
[ JCLI3420.1 - Read/Download File

Download PDF - Springer
1 Laboratory for Climate Studies and Climate Prediction, National Climate Center , ... The results show that the hindcasts of EASP by BCC−CGCM and BCC−CSM deviate from ... Key words: dynamic–analogue correction scheme, East Asian summer precipitation, .... decadal anomalies of the atmosphere–ocean system in.
[ s13351-016-5220-1.pdf - Read/Download File

Analogue forecasting of New Zealand climate anomalies - Leg
Oct 21, 2005 ... An analogue forecast scheme is described for multifield prediction of monthly and ... along with Monte Carlo tests, to assess the skill of the method on independent .... systems. Each integration starts from a slightly different initial .... analogues needs to be optimised, through a hindcast bootstrap validation, ...
[ Mullan_2006.pdf - Read/Download File

Systematic Error Correction of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of
Sep 1, 2008 ... Climate Environment System Research Center, Seoul National University, ... anomalies that degrade the seasonal climate prediction ... mate prediction include an analog method, pattern pre- ... To test this statistical model, the SPPM is applied to ..... a 20-year hindcast of seasonal climate prediction is not.
[ p97.pdf - Read/Download File

The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El
produce forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies for ... of the IRI two-tiered numerical forecast system during the 1997/98 El Niño. ..... Analog years .... Therefore, to test the skill of model hindcasts, the availability of high quality observational.
[ Mason_etal_1999.pdf - Read/Download File

Extended-Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity
Jun 1, 2016 ... ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2016 .... Analog predictors are also ... season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement .... The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (Saha et al. ... Student's t-test and assuming that each year represents an ...
[ jun2016.pdf - Read/Download File

A novel approach to improve numerical weather prediction skills by
Aug 20, 2013 ... [1] Using the concept of anomaly integration and historical climate data, we have ... in the most updated forecasting system, are recorded in the ... established a coupled analogue-dynamical model for long- .... Medium-Range Prediction Tests ... hind cast with the developed anomaly model and bias-.
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Skill of Real-time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002
Oct 6, 2011 ... observing and analysis/assimilation systems, improved physical parameterizations, higher ... predictions to those of longer-term (30-year) hindcasts from some of the same models. ... Figure 1 Time series of running 3- month mean SST anomaly with respect ... Analogue-construction of current global SSTs.
[ TBarnston.pdf - Read/Download File

Skill assessment of seasonal hindcasts from the Canadian - CCCma
2001) is the basis of the current seasonal forecasting system in Canada. The first .... where {X}m is the ensemble mean anomaly forecast of the mth model (M = 4 in HFP2), ... Here we test whether regression-based techniques are ..... size in an idealized analogue of the HFP seasonal forecasting system following Kharin et.
[ hfp2_paper.pdf - Read/Download File

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the - LSE
Dec 1, 2013 ... The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional- mean .... forecast systems, forecast evaluation is typically per- formed in .... 4 For point forecasts, forecasting anomalies allows an immediate apparent bias ... neighbor (the random analog prediction method; .... To test whether.
[ Suckling-and-Smith-2013.pdf - Read/Download File

An evaluation of decadal - LSE
Oct 21, 2013 ... bility hindcasts are contrasted with forecasts from empirical models of the ... tion of decadal forecast systems, forecast evaluation is typically .... anomalies is intended to reduce model drift4 (Pierce et al. ... ensemble random analogue prediction (eRAP) (Smith 1997; Paparella et al. ..... To test whether one.
[ 95_Suckling&Smith-decadal-hindcasts-v9-final-JoC.pdf - Read/Download File

Download - ECMWF
Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System … ... Seasonal- timescale climate predictions are now made routinely at a number of .... A description of the DEMETER coupled models, the DEMETER hindcast .... Standard deterministic ensemble mean scores, such as anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), root.
[ 11568-development-european-multi-model-ensemble-system-seasonal-inter-annual-prediction-demeter.pdf - Read/Download File

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction
Dec 11, 2015 ... Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against ... As an alternative to dynamical forecast systems, empiri- ... clude analog forecasting (van den Dool, 2007; Suckling and .... anomalies are subsequently linked to climate variability in ...... work permits the potential to test empirical prediction meth-.
[ gmd-8-3947-2015.pdf - Read/Download File

PDF(510K) - Wiley Online Library
Monthly mean temperature anomalies in the regions England, Germany and ... models can help to identify causes and relations within the climate system, and reveal ... that the European climate is diffi cult to predict due to the intense synoptic variability ... analogue techniques (Bergen and Harnack 1982; Livezey et al. 1994 ...
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Report on initialisation of impacts models for seasonal predictions
Jul 31, 2014 ... An important aspect of most seasonal prediction systems is that the models are ... hindcasts (forecasts of the past) is greatest in the Tropics (MacLeod et al. ... Classification and analogue approaches, as reviewed by Hansen et al 2006. ..... anomalous crop yield) must be caused by a climatological anomaly.
[ D23.3_Final.pdf - Read/Download File

Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability - IPCC
11.2.2 Climate Prediction on Decadal Time Scales . .... The nonlinear and chaotic nature of the climate system imposes natu- ..... (2012) use analog and multivariate linear ..... Time series of global mean sea surface temperature from the (a) direct model output and (b) anomalies of the CMIP5 multi-model initialized hindcasts.
[ WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf - Read/Download File

Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of - IOPscience
Sep 24, 2014 ... period, as well as the analog domain, is based on a strong ... coupled forecast systems (Kumar et al 2012, Xue et al 2011) ... members), models have 10 hindcast ensemble members ... dized anomalies of the observed EA MAM precipitation , ..... EA region, the true test of the usefulness of its skill can only.
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